{"id":45898,"date":"2025-08-21T17:08:33","date_gmt":"2025-08-21T15:08:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/?p=45898"},"modified":"2026-01-22T13:48:10","modified_gmt":"2026-01-22T12:48:10","slug":"demographic-aging-a-major-threat-to-global-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/demographic-aging-a-major-threat-to-global-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"Demographic aging: A major threat to global growth"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The latest OECD Employment Outlook report delivers a stark verdict: advanced economies are no longer facing a shortage of jobs, but rather a shortage of workers \u2014 a direct consequence of demographic aging and declining fertility rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<!--more-->\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/194a947b-en.pdf\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/une-oecd-1024x576.png\" alt=\"oecd report\" class=\"wp-image-45911\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/une-oecd-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/une-oecd-400x225.png 400w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/une-oecd-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/une-oecd.png 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Demographic aging is reducing the working population and threatening global growth: GDP per capita could fall by 40% by 2060.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The dependency ratio for those over 65 rose from 19% in 1980 to 31% in 2023, and could reach 52% by 2060.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The OECD recommends mobilizing young people, women, migrants, and seniors to compensate for the labor shortage.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Seniors remain a key resource but face stereotypes, lack of training, and limited access to opportunities.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>AI can help, but only a comprehensive and equitable strategy can maintain prosperity and social cohesion.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"92\" height=\"92\" src=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ocde-logo.png\" alt=\"oecd logo demographic crisis\" class=\"wp-image-45902\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">A resilient but fragile labor market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2025, <strong>the OECD labor market <\/strong>remains robust. The <strong>unemployment rate<\/strong> stood at 4.9% in May 2025, a historically low level, while the <strong>employment rate <\/strong>reached 72.1% and the <strong>labor force participation rate<\/strong> climbed to 76.6% in the first quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet behind these strong figures, <strong>the first signs of strain <\/strong>are<strong> <\/strong>emerging:<strong> job growth <\/strong>is slowing,<strong> wages are struggling<\/strong> to return to their pre-2021 levels, and <strong>geopolitical tensions <\/strong>could further undermine this fragile momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-recrutement-job-1024x576.webp\" alt=\"job demographic crisis\" class=\"wp-image-45903\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-recrutement-job-1024x576.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-recrutement-job-400x225.webp 400w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-recrutement-job-768x432.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-recrutement-job.webp 1200w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demographic aging: A historic turning point<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The year 2025 marks a <strong>demographic shift<\/strong>. For the first time, <strong>the working-age population <\/strong>(20\u201364 years old) is beginning to decline in most OECD countries, <strong>a trend expected to continue<\/strong> through 2060.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At the same time, the <strong>old-age dependency ratio<\/strong> (the ratio of those aged 65 and over to the working-age population) had already reached 31% in 2023 and <strong>could soar to 52% by 2060<\/strong>, compared with just 19% in 1980. In some countries, this ratio will even exceed 70%,<strong> intensifying economic and social pressures<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"814\" height=\"601\" src=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ocde-graphique-vieillissement.png\" alt=\"oecd graphic\" class=\"wp-image-45904\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ocde-graphique-vieillissement.png 814w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ocde-graphique-vieillissement-400x295.png 400w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/ocde-graphique-vieillissement-768x567.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 814px) 100vw, 814px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\"><em>Estimated cumulative GDP growth per capita in OECD countries excluding (blue) and including (green) aging. \u00a9OECD<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demographic aging: Economic growth at risk<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/south-korea-faces-an-unprecedented-demographic-crisis\/\">Demographic aging<\/a><\/strong> could significantly slow global growth. According to the OECD, annual per capita GDP growth is projected to decline from an average of 1% (2006\u20132019) to just <strong>0.6% <\/strong>(2024\u20132060), <strong>a 40% drop<\/strong>. <strong>All OECD countries would be affected<\/strong>, except for Ireland and the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Levers to counter the crisis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>In response, <strong>the OECD calls for the urgent mobilization <\/strong>of untapped labor resources:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Young people<\/strong> (15\u201329 years old): In some countries, more than 15% are neither employed nor in education or training, particularly in Spain, Italy, Greece, and Turkey.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Migrants<\/strong>: Increasing migration flows to levels seen in the most open countries could boost growth by 0.08 percentage points (pp).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Women<\/strong>: Narrowing the gender employment gap could add 0.2 pp to annual per capita GDP growth \u2014 and up to double that if working hours were equalized.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Older workers<\/strong>: Encouraging healthy older workers to extend their careers could raise growth by 0.2 to 0.3 pp per year in many countries.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"576\" src=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-senior-1024x576-1.png\" alt=\"senior jobs\" class=\"wp-image-45906\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-senior-1024x576-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-senior-1024x576-1-400x225.png 400w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/emploi-senior-1024x576-1-768x432.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Older workers at the heart of the demographic response<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Older workers<\/strong> are a vital resource in mitigating the effects of an <strong>aging workforce<\/strong>. The report emphasizes that <strong>extending their participation<\/strong> in the labor market would not only support growth but also help <strong>preserve valuable expertise<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, <strong>older workers face several barriers<\/strong>:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Lower participation in training programs <\/strong>(only one-third of those aged 60\u201365 in 2023, compared with more than half of those aged 25\u201344).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>More limited <\/strong>literacy and problem-solving <strong>skills<\/strong>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Persistent <strong>age-related stereotypes<\/strong>.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>To reverse this trend, the<strong> OECD stresses the need to invest in lifelong learning<\/strong>, implement inclusive hiring policies, and <strong>fight against <a href=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/rights-of-older-persons-un-launches-the-process-to-draft-an-international-convention\/\">ageism<\/a><\/strong>, which too often hampers career progression.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/agisme-travail-1024x683-1.png\" alt=\"ageism elderly work\" class=\"wp-image-45907\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/agisme-travail-1024x683-1.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/agisme-travail-1024x683-1-400x267.png 400w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/agisme-travail-1024x683-1-768x512.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">AI: A tool, but not a silver bullet<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Artificial intelligence<\/strong> could help ease workloads, extend working lives, and enhance productivity. But, the OECD warns, <strong>AI alone will not be enough<\/strong> to offset the structural decline in the human workforce. <strong>Without a comprehensive strategy<\/strong>, the slowdown in growth could<strong> threaten social cohesion and the economic sustainability <\/strong>of social systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Demographic aging: A political as well as societal challenge<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>Beyond the numbers, <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/ageing-population-in-europe-a-demographic-crisis-for-the-eu\/\">demographic aging<\/a> <\/strong>raises a critical issue of intergenerational equity. As wealth and income increasingly concentrate among older generations, younger people are facing <strong>heightened insecurity<\/strong>, with more limited access to housing and stable employment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The OECD highlights that without fair policies, <strong>the gap between generations could widen<\/strong>, undermining social cohesion. Reforms must therefore <strong>balance economic efficiency with fairness<\/strong>, ensuring that adaptation to the <strong>demographic shock <\/strong>benefits all age groups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full is-resized\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" src=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Vieillissement-de-la-population-Transition-demographique-edited.jpg\" alt=\"demographic aging\" class=\"wp-image-45908\" style=\"width:944px;height:auto\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Vieillissement-de-la-population-Transition-demographique-edited.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/Vieillissement-de-la-population-Transition-demographique-edited-400x225.jpg 400w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An urgent call to action<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>The message is clear: <strong>demographics demand a strategic shift for OECD countries<\/strong>. Sustaining prosperity and social cohesion will depend on the ability to extend careers, <strong>integrate more seniors<\/strong>, women, and migrants into the labor market, and invest in skills to keep pace with technological transformations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The demographic crisis<\/strong> is not inevitable. But without swift and decisive action, it could permanently<strong> slow growth and deepen social divides<\/strong> across advanced economies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.silvereco.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/194a947b-en.pdf\">Download the full OECD report<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>#Demographic #aging: A major #threat to #global #growth<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":33,"featured_media":45911,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_uag_custom_page_level_css":"","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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#aging: A major #threat to #global 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